The removal of Afghan government rule by the Taliban has still left the world in shock. Within the time limit of 11 days, the Taliban was able to succeed over the Afghan government without much hassle. Just like a pack of dominos, all the cities were captured by the Taliban. Surprisingly, the Afghan soldiers were not seen nearby while this over-taking was happening in Kabul. Most of the political observers stated that this move was out of fear since it was quite sure that the Taliban was capable of overpowering and conquering the government. Or maybe they had to choose between what is their greater fear or evil. The one that trained them versus, the one that is from their land. Either way, both have their good and their own bad so it’s a win-and-lose situation.
Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) including the military, elite forces, and national police were trained by the United States with a funding of $83 billion. If the Taliban didn’t overtake Kabul, the Washington ministry promised funding for $3.3 billion in 2022 that would increase to $4 billion until 2024. With analysis going on the topic of the fall of 300,000 strong ANDSF forces, people are wondering how the country is going to end up.
In 2021, we are going to see the way that this country would be led, is it going to be by the people(Taliban) who overtook the nation or by the support of a modernistic power-sharing government that would be led by the Taliban. This would lead to a huge number of changes for the people of this land as well as those aside them, for instance, Pakistan.
Favorable Points for Pakistan
To state favorable points, it would be the end of the long war of 20 years. The forces that supported this war left the country, thus bringing somewhat peace-like stimuli for the country as well as Pakistan. The Pakistan government realized how their decision on joining the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) could not go for miles. As their decision caused a vicious loss of 83,000 Pakistani lives.
The second point to be noted for Pakistanis is that their said efforts of bringing both Taliban and the United States together at the negotiating table. Their initial peace offering between these two rivals is not a total waste even after the total withdrawal of the United States. Those officials who have a good sense of law were able to explain and give away the importance of connecting with the international community and to claim the political space they once had even though it comes with a price, that is power-sharing.
The interactions made by Pakistani officials in the Doha process paved a path of realization for the Taliban. They were able to undertake a cost-benefit analysis of imagining an Afghanistan post-US withdrawal. This analysis is somewhat inclined to what they want to build. After the fall in the capital of Afghanistan, the press conference Taliban held and that what we are seeing on our TV, nagging with the international community as proactive citizens of Afghanistan, casting a shadow over their militant personal is all a win considering how they were before. Nothing would happen if Pakistans stopped pestering the Taliban about the same. Let it be the same for the United States and other regional partners where all come together with their ideologies and talk a way where both of them can find a way where all of them find a common ground.
Unlike before many people are now educated let it be from the lower classes and women, hence we can see more and more people fighting against the laws, hence maybe with a lot of thinking a positive influence from the Pakistani officials their strict laws could be reduced into a much more acceptable one.
China’s positive outlook on the prospect of Afghanistan under a Taliban-led government is also a move made by Pakistan. The impact of the Chinese government is not something that can be just overlooked. Beijing would be the power that replaces the hole created by the US retreat. China is aspiring to bring leadership where they plan on bringing current and prospective Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) member countries in the region together so that they can achieve its South Asian economic ambitions.
If they could get all the countries in their boat starting from Pakistan they would be able to create a smooth flow of robust vision of regional connectivity. It is a win for all if they strengthen regional security and trade by joining the hands of all countries.
The First Stage Of The Bad Side
Alongside these good effects come the bad effects. The recognition of power by the Taliban for shaping a government without their help would pose a new sort of conflict. Pakistan would need to make a unilateral decision that would be in respect to the recognition of the Taliban government. The agreement that Pakistan as a country sought along through these years would all go down in drain if the Taliban still stuck up to the old ways.
Till now, there are no improvements and many predict that there won’t be any kinds of notable changes. Pakistan would have to choose a side when things don’t go as planned. As we can see, there are no improvements in the power-sharing structure between the Taliban, the Afghan political elite, and other tribal factions thus which would automatically lead to the Taliban declaring themselves as autocrats of their Islamic Emirate. This move would surely encourage penalties from the G7 and other countries,
The Last Stage Of The Bad Side
The original conditions of the 2020 US-Taliban agreement stand diluted. Every move is just all jumbled up to form a bigger messed-up puzzle. The fact that the Taliban still maintains a close relationship with the AL-QUAEDA despite the promise made to Washington is something that needs to be looked upon to. Seeking the shelter of the Taliban province, it is quite logical to think that both of them would hold hands in future days to come. Especially with the withdrawal of US forces and the power-sharing model which is still under construction. The United States has also frozen its foreign reserve. Pakistan comes under huge pressure where it has to make sure that any fraction of terror units like Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) don’t grow in great numbers under the influence of the Taliban or Al-Queada. It should also make sure that they don’t plan any move against Pakistan soil.
The fact that the Taliban is not giving a firm statement against the TTP terrorists in any kind of way is quite troubling. Taliban is showing no signs of releasing the terrorists instead they are against the fencing of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. They keep focussing on the border rather than releasing the TTP terrorists. If Pakistan is not able to get a clear-cut answer from the Taliban officials they would have to look for other ways as this topic cannot be compromised in any manner. This itself would be like walking on eggshells, as one wrong step from either side would trigger the worst.
The uncertain future of Afghanistan is certainly a challenge for Pakistan and that too is a very serious one. Pakistan can never compromise on its counter-terrorism strategy. The counter-terrorism strategy is all about the elimination of the TTP. All the political observers look forward to the next move of this country and the power that would lead this country either into chaos or a successful regime. The effects would lead to a conclusion on whether Pakistan would be an ally or the other.