Panjshir has fallen to the Taliban according to the reports. Now, all the parts of the country are under the control of the Taliban. It includes the Haqqani Network and different factions. The significance of changes in Indian Security should be accessed. The picture is quite grim for India and others in this region. Although, there’s no doubt at all that the regions are going to be a heavy attraction for International tourism. 

Highlights

• The impact on India’s interests is becoming clear after the fall of Afghan cities centered on the rise of the Taliban.
• India cannot ignore the threat that the Taliban is posing in Afghanistan and it has to be careful and needs to strengthen the security implications.
• The Ministry of External Affairs informed that it has already been able to help over 383 members of the Hindu and Sikh community to safely get back to India, and will continue to assist these minorities.
• The projects of India, like the already established Zaranj-Delaram Highway and Salma Dam, are already under the control of the Taliban.

What’s more worrisome is that several components of the Taliban as also its supporters and allies like Al Qaeda and IS-K are under the influence of Pakistan which is focused on making India face countless problems through terrorism. Pakistan’s policy of bleeding India hasn’t changed through the years. Rather it has become more dangerous and intense with time. And the present situation isn’t helping. It’s practically giving the Pak Army/ISI, the silver lining. The support of China and the Strategic depth against India has made it even more important than ever to bring significant changes in Indian security. Effective strategy making and security are the prime needs for India now, keeping in view the moves of the above-mentioned parties.

Securing The Indians

The first and foremost concern of the authority is for the Indian diplomats, personnel, and citizens who are based in Afghanistan after it became clear that the U.S. troops would leave the country, India has slowly and gradually brought down its presence there, over the past year. In 2020, in April, the government made all the Indian staff fly back at its missions in Herat and Jalalabad because of the security and COVID-19 concerns. Recently, the consulates in Kandahar and Mazar were closed, and the Embassy in Kabul has issued strict advisories and has instructed all the Indian citizens that they must take out the commercial flights as soon as possible.

The Ministry of External Affairs informed that it has already been able to help over 383 members of the Hindu and Sikh community to safely get back to India, and will continue to assist these minorities. But in the light of the government’s push for the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA), which does not include prosecuted Afghan Citizens, it is unclear and unpredictable to deduce whether India will welcome thousands of others like it did in the past.

Concerns And Strategies

While the Taliban is in the power of a large part of Afghanistan, India has other concerns as well. One concern is that groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Jaish-e-Mohammad that have been maintaining bases and training grounds along with the provinces in the south that border Pakistan could now be having more ungoverned spaces to attack against India. The control of The Taliban also conveys a bigger hand for the Pakistani intelligence agencies and the military to impact on outcomes for the whole country, which will demand a minor role for Indian development and infrastructure work that has earned its goodwill over the past 20 years.

Additionally, trading through Afghanistan under the regime of the Taliban would make way through Karachi and Gwadar, and the Chabahar port Indian investment meant to evade Pakistan may be termed as unviable. For this reason, both China and the USA have already centered the Central Asia connectivity projects through Pakistan, with the recently announced U.S.-Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan Quadrilateral, and Chinese plans on linking the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC) with the Trans-Afghanistan railroad and also belt the Road Projects.

The projects of India, like the already established Zaranj-Delaram Highway and Salma Dam, are already under the control of the Taliban.

The Threat Of Radicalisation

To add more to the complications, the threat of growing radicalization and space for pan-Islamic terror groups in the neighborhood of India is prevalent. In South Asia, the aftermath was seen which was the last pullout by foreign troops in Afghanistan, this was when the U.S. troops backed mujahideen and defeated the Soviet force in the 1980s, it was followed by the rise of al-Qaeda and IS after the U.S. wars in Iraq, and this led to them subsequently pulling-out from West Asia, which happened especially after 2011.

Now, India cannot ignore the threat that the Taliban is posing in Afghanistan and it has to be careful and needs to strengthen the security implications. The Taliban’s record in power has evidence of erosion in the rights of women and minorities, and it has overturned a democratic government and imposed brutal forms of justice in the country. The Taliban rule in Kabul will lead to very few international partners investing in that region and will be receiving very little financial assistance, and the impact of this will mostly be felt by Afghanistan’s most vulnerable

India’s Options

After considering everything, India is left with four options, and none of these is easy.

1. The first option would include India sticking to its principles and supporting a government that is democratically elected and also providing political and humanitarian support as long as it can last.

2. The second option includes going further and supplying the ANDSF with military supplies, which includes ammunition and airpower, and this could be supplied possibly through the Iranian route. In the NDTV interview, the Taliban spokesperson Suhail Shaheen has threatened India saying it will have consequences if it did that.

3. The third choice would be to maintain a good relationship and contact with the Taliban. But it will not be giving India much leverage, given the Pakistan factor and the fact that all the regional and the donor countries have already tried doing so.

4. And the last and final option is that India could just be a spectator and could continue to just wait and watch, till a winning side is revealed from the chaos and conflict, and then act accordingly. This option is safe and there is no doubt in that, but it also denies the relevance of India at the “high table” where the future of Afghanistan is being discussed. It was very evident this week when the Modi government proceeded further to accept the Qatari invitation and joined “regional talks” with the Taliban and in Doha, but the MEA delegation found that it was cut out of the opening session in which the U.S., China, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and the U.K., as well as the Troika-Plus talks of Russia-U.S.-China-Pakistan, were included, and it was included in the session with Germany, Norway, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Turkey instead.

Conclusion

India needs to urgently plan a strategy keeping in view the current situation of the Taliban Afghanistan. Al Qaeda and IS-K should not be taken separately as far as India is concerned. It is known that Al Qaeda was aided by Pakistan after 2001 and IS-K was reportedly created by ISI. India already has to take necessary precautions to ensure security in Kashmir and apart from this, diplomatic efforts and coordinated steps to have some control over the Taliban Government in Kabul are urgently demanded. 

Russia, Iran, and China are very much worried about the support that Afghanistan is providing to the terrorists of their country. India would need to work with its allied forces for coming up with an effective defense against the threat that is in making. It is evident that India does not have much hope of getting help from China and the best bet India has right now is to seek assistance from countries like Russia and Iran.  We can only hope that the strategies and alliances are made quickly and wisely.